BEING TEXT OF SPEECH BY PASTOR ‘TUNDE BAKARE
AT THE OBAFEMI AWOLOWO UNIVERSITY (OAU) COURTESY OF THE ANGOLA HALL EXECUTIVES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE OAU STUDENTS‘ UNION
ON WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 28, 2015
VENUE: ODUDUWA HALL, OAU.
THEME: NIGERIA BEYOND 2015
THEME: NIGERIA BEYOND 2015
PROTOCOLS
Introduction
I stand here in celebration of an institution whose commitment to the
Nigerian ideal is etched indelibly on the pages of history. The pride
of place occupied by this university in the educational landscape of our
nation and continent is one reserved for a select few; a league of
universities that have earned the right to the epithet “Great!”
The import of “Great Ife”, as this ivory tower is fondly called, lies
not in the serenity of its physical environment nor in the
sophistication of its laboratories and Information Technology centres;
it resides not just in its towering academic records nor in its
consistency among the top ranked universities in Nigeria; it consists
not merely in the fact of its location in a city that also plays host to
Yoruba historical and cultural heritage, nor is it defined just by its
belonging to the class of tertiary institutions dubbed “first generation
universities” conceived and birthed by the founding fathers of our
nation in her glory days. Rather, the import of “Great Ife” lies in the
revolutionary spirit that birthed it and has characterized its
interaction with the social, political and economic landscapes of our
nation since its inception.
The revolutionary gene was infused into the DNA of this university
when it was established through a stroke of political activism by the
Action Group under the leadership of Chief Obafemi Awolowo in defiance
of the report of the Ashby Commission which had recommended that the
University College Ibadan, a federal university, was sufficient for the
Western Region.[1] Rejecting the Ashby recommendation, the leadership
of the region, in its characteristic proactivity and prioritization of
education as a tool for development, conceived and established this
university from funds generated within the region.
I am therefore pleased to be among you as we consider this very
weighty matter that pertains to the future of our nation as encapsulated
in our theme, “Nigeria Beyond 2015”. At a time when power brokers are
locking horns in partisan politicking, when vested interests across
party lines are facing off ahead of the planned February elections, and
when politicians are preoccupied with electioneering, sloganeering, and
“manifesto engineering”, I consider it statesmanly and a demonstration
of a sense of responsibility for the occupants of Angola Hall and the
Students’ Union Government of this great university to have looked
beyond the euphoria of the election season to the weightier matters of
nation building.
Having said that, I must let you know that I come before you today
with the solemn realization that Nigeria is on the verge of what will go
down in history as a most crucial moment in her journey to nationhood. I
speak to you with a weight of responsibility knowing that I am
addressing a generation whose future is at stake in this pivotal moment
in our nation’s history; a generation that is caught up in the complex
paradoxes of our nation; a generation that is outwardly confident in
itself yet lost in the frantic search for individual and national
identity, seemingly optimistic yet disillusioned by the failed promises
of its country; despised in the social, political and economic equation
of its nation, yet in possession of the latent power to determine the
destiny of that nation. I speak to you of the future that is possible
for our nation Nigeria – a future that you have the power to create.
What is it about 2015?
At the turn of the millennium, the year 2015 was marked by the international community as a landmark year. In September 2000, world leaders met at the United Nations headquarters in New York to make projections for the community of nations. The 189 world leaders at the summit agreed on 8 development goals, better known as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), with a deadline for accomplishment set for 2015.
At the turn of the millennium, the year 2015 was marked by the international community as a landmark year. In September 2000, world leaders met at the United Nations headquarters in New York to make projections for the community of nations. The 189 world leaders at the summit agreed on 8 development goals, better known as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), with a deadline for accomplishment set for 2015.
That same year, in Dakar, Senegal, the international community set a
2015 target for attaining its goal of meeting the educational needs of
children, youths and adults – the “Education for All” goal it had set
ten years prior but failed to meet.
It is necessary to point out that most of these goals were set with
Africa in mind given the relatively disadvantaged state of the continent
at the turn of the millennium. While we wonder why 2015 was chosen by
the international community for the attainment of its broad range of
developmental objectives, I would like to take you to other pertinent
projections that make 2015 crucial for our nation and indeed our
continent.
In December 2000, under the direction of the National Intelligence
Council (NIC) of the United States of America, and with the support of a
range of non-governmental institutions and experts, the Global Trends 2015
report was published with a view to highlighting the major drivers and
trends that would shape the world in 2015. While noting that those
drivers would include demographics, natural resources and environment,
science and technology, the global economy and globalization, national
and international governance, future conflict and the role of the United
States, the report had the following to say of Nigeria:
Criminal organizations and networks based in North America, Western
Europe, China, Colombia, Israel, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, and Russia will
expand the scale and scope of their activities. They will form loose
alliances with one another, with smaller criminal entrepreneurs, and
with insurgent movements for specific operations. They will corrupt
leaders of unstable, economically fragile or failing states, insinuate
themselves into troubled banks and businesses, and cooperate with
insurgent political movements to control substantial geographic areas.
Their income will come from narcotics trafficking; alien smuggling;
trafficking in women and children; smuggling toxic materials, hazardous
wastes, illicit arms, military technologies, and other contraband,
financial fraud and racketeering.[2]
The report also identified the possibility of Nigeria, among other
states “of major concern to US strategic interests”, failing “to manage
serious internal religious and ethnic divisions” leading to crisis “over
the next 15 years” – 2015 being the expiration of that 15-year
projection.
Earlier on in November 1997, at a time when Nigeria’s leadership role
in the West African sub-region was strongly felt through the
instrumentality of the Economic Community of West African States
Monitoring Group (ECOMOG), the NIC predicted the following in a
publication titled Global Trends 2010:
Nigeria and Kenya will not have the potential to play the role of
leaders in their respective regions. Nigeria’s economic mismanagement,
corruption, and political instability will not be resolved over the next
15 years.[3]
In December 2004, the National Intelligence Council, again, based on
consultations with non-governmental experts around the world, released a
publication titled Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project.[4]
While projecting economic ascendancy and influence for China, India and
other Asian countries, the report said little about Sub-Saharan Africa
and seemed to relegate the future of Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan
African countries to negative phenomena including HIV/AIDS, organized
crime, and brain drain by the year 2010.
Subsequently, in January 2005, the NIC convened a group of top US
experts on Sub-Saharan Africa to determine how the 2020 projections
would reflect in Sub-Saharan African countries by 2015. This led to a
March 2005 report titled Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future, a
futuristic view on the sub-continent that not only showed little
optimism on the prospects of Sub-Saharan Africa enjoying the projected
global economic gains but also painted a gloomy and chaotic picture for
the continent. In what was referred to as “downside scenarios”, the
following possibility was projected for Nigeria by 2015:
Other potential developments might accelerate decline in Africa and
reduce even our limited optimism. The most important would be the
outright collapse of Nigeria. While currently Nigeria’s leaders are
locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are
possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja.
The most important would be a junior officer coup that could destabilize
the country to the extent that open warfare breaks out in many places
in a sustained manner. If Nigeria were to become a failed state, it
could drag down a large part of the West African region. Even state
failure in small countries such as Liberia has the effect of
destabilizing entire neighborhoods. If millions were to flee a collapsed
Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana, would be
destabilized. Further, a failed Nigeria probably could not be
reconstituted for many years—if ever—and not without massive
international assistance.[5]
This downside scenario is what is often quoted as the projection by
the United States that Nigeria would break up by 2015. Even though the
United States government has sought to distance itself from this report,
it is noteworthy that the National Intelligence Council (NIC), the body
behind this projection, supports and reports to the Director of
National Intelligence who is officially the principal adviser to the
President of the United States, the National Security Council, and the
Homeland Security Council on intelligence matters. A disclaimer[6] to
this report by then United States Ambassador to Nigeria, Mr. Terence
McCauley, therefore seems like a typical case of “plausible
deniability”, a strategy officially adopted by the Central Intelligence
Agency (CIA) since the 1960s in the days of Harry Truman in which
security documents involving controversial actions are managed in such a
way that if they become exposed to the public, the president is
adequately shielded.
In the year 2005, while I was unaware that such sessions had been
convened by the American intelligence community, I was taken in a vision
to the war room at the White House where I saw President George Bush
plotting against Nigeria. I confronted him and asked him to leave
Nigeria alone but he simply told me to help myself to some breakfast.
Young leaders of this nation, I am bringing this information to you
to let you understand the global environment within which your country
exists and to let you realize that, long before this time, the year 2015
had been identified by the international community as a crucial year
for Nigeria and, by implication, the rest of Africa. I am doing this to
challenge you to become responsible for your nation and continent. You
will observe from these reports that governments and institutions of
other nations are taking the time to strategize about your nation and,
by implication, your future. I want you to become righteously indignant,
not towards those nations, but towards your government for failing to
take responsibility for the fate of your nation. I want you to begin to
ask what the Department of State Services (DSS) and the Directorate of
Military Intelligence (DMI) are doing in terms of mapping the future of
our nation and its strategic interests. I also want to let you know that
the world does not expect much from you, your country or your continent
even though it reluctantly admits that you have great potential and
indeed fears what you could become if your country were to get the
fundamentals right. I am here to challenge you to rise up and take your
destiny in your hands. I am here to inspire you to reject the
stereotypic limitations that the world identifies you with and to summon
your full potential towards making your country and your continent the
best they can and must be. I do this because I am persuaded that there
is hope for our nation and continent despite the gloomy picture painted
by the world and regardless of the fact that they have been written off
by a cynical, skeptical and pessimistic international intelligentsia. In
spite of the mess brought upon the nation by an unpatriotic and
self-seeking political class, I am confident that there is a future for
our country and continent because a people who once sat in darkness
shall see a great light (Isaiah 9:2, paraphrased).
At this point, it is necessary to point out the intrinsic factors
that make the year 2015 crucial for Nigeria and that might have informed
some of these projections by the international intelligence community.
Factors That Make 2015 a Crucial Year for Nigeria
First, 2015 marks Nigeria’s first post-centenary year since the amalgamation of the Northern and Southern Protectorates in 1914, which became the precursor to the formation of the Nigerian state. There have been allegations that that colonial action was intended to be a 100-year experiment purportedly designed within the framework of a secret document called the Tinubu Square Edict or the Accord of 1914. Although the propagators of this so-called agreement do not specify the parties involved, it is claimed that it was signed by Lord Lugard. While the logical reaction would be to dismiss such insinuations on the legal ground that British colonies were created by an Order-in-Council and not by treaties, it is instructive that former Head of State, General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB), at the January 31, 2013 launch of 2 books in honour of Professor Bolaji Akinyemi who had served as Minister for Foreign Affairs during IBB’s tenure as military president, stated that even Lord Lugard gave Nigeria a lifespan of 100 years.[7] Coming from a former Head of State who had access to relevant intelligence, such statements should not be taken lightly. It buttresses the fact that the colonial administration regarded the act of amalgamation not as an integration of peoples but as an administrative arrangement for the economic interests of the British Empire. It also suggests that the colonialists, at the point of the amalgamation, had no definite plan to transition the colonies from dependent territories to independent states but had hoped that within 100 years, the resources of these territories would have been exhaustively exploited under a colonial arrangement for the benefit of the British Crown, after which the colonial peoples would be left alone to decide their fate under a new international order that would keep them in perpetual subjugation. However, subsequent events, particularly the Second World War, would destabilize the existing international order and weaken the colonial empires, including Britain. The Second World War also facilitated the coming of the United States of America into the community of nations and its ascendance to global power status as well as the rise of the Soviet Union and the threat of communism. With Britain relinquishing its world power status to the United States and the world subsequently becoming bipolar, pressure from the new world powers in addition to agitations within the colonies forced Britain and the other European colonialists to gradually concede independence to the colonies.
First, 2015 marks Nigeria’s first post-centenary year since the amalgamation of the Northern and Southern Protectorates in 1914, which became the precursor to the formation of the Nigerian state. There have been allegations that that colonial action was intended to be a 100-year experiment purportedly designed within the framework of a secret document called the Tinubu Square Edict or the Accord of 1914. Although the propagators of this so-called agreement do not specify the parties involved, it is claimed that it was signed by Lord Lugard. While the logical reaction would be to dismiss such insinuations on the legal ground that British colonies were created by an Order-in-Council and not by treaties, it is instructive that former Head of State, General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB), at the January 31, 2013 launch of 2 books in honour of Professor Bolaji Akinyemi who had served as Minister for Foreign Affairs during IBB’s tenure as military president, stated that even Lord Lugard gave Nigeria a lifespan of 100 years.[7] Coming from a former Head of State who had access to relevant intelligence, such statements should not be taken lightly. It buttresses the fact that the colonial administration regarded the act of amalgamation not as an integration of peoples but as an administrative arrangement for the economic interests of the British Empire. It also suggests that the colonialists, at the point of the amalgamation, had no definite plan to transition the colonies from dependent territories to independent states but had hoped that within 100 years, the resources of these territories would have been exhaustively exploited under a colonial arrangement for the benefit of the British Crown, after which the colonial peoples would be left alone to decide their fate under a new international order that would keep them in perpetual subjugation. However, subsequent events, particularly the Second World War, would destabilize the existing international order and weaken the colonial empires, including Britain. The Second World War also facilitated the coming of the United States of America into the community of nations and its ascendance to global power status as well as the rise of the Soviet Union and the threat of communism. With Britain relinquishing its world power status to the United States and the world subsequently becoming bipolar, pressure from the new world powers in addition to agitations within the colonies forced Britain and the other European colonialists to gradually concede independence to the colonies.
Nevertheless, in the post-colonial international order, Africa has
been merely nominally politically independent and has remained largely
economically dependent on the West which scholars have termed
neo-colonialism. The international legal order, from the structure,
composition and power dynamics of the United Nations, to the various
international trade regimes, has been largely disadvantageous to Africa.
The multinational corporations, with the connivance of the corrupt and
self-serving political administrations of Africa, have simply continued
the pre-independence order that was characterized by the exploitation of
African territories with the collusion of local chiefs.
Therefore, whereas Nigerians are treating the 2015 projections with
levity, it appears that the international community is already acting in
anticipation of the downward scenario which is, indeed, a nightmare
scenario. As one analyst put it, it appears the international community
is “working to the 2015 answer”.[8] If these projections are considered
against the backdrop of the Lugardian timetable for the exhaustive
exploitation of the Nigerian territory and the subsequent expiration of
the so-called amalgamation experiment, it would appear that the Western
powers have not jettisoned that timetable. To buttress this point,
observers have pointed out the following developments:
- Since 2011, insurgency in northern Nigeria has escalated to international proportions from what started as a small religious sect. The escalation of the sect’s activities to the level of insurgency just a few years before 2015, in such a proportion never before experienced in Nigeria’s history of religious conflicts, is worth pondering upon. There have been reports alleging that the escalation is part of an international plot to balkanize Nigeria. One of such is an article by Gordon Duff, reportedly a national security specialist and an editor for Veterans Today,[9] a US magazine. Duff’s article[10] has been referenced in other Nigerian dailies including Daily Trust[11] and Vanguard.[12] In his allegations, which were made a couple of years before the crisis reached its current alarming state, Gordon Duff described Boko Haram as “the construct of outside powers who plan to balkanize Nigeria”. Although the veracity of Duff’s claims may be challenged[13], reports from other sources such as News Rescue have linked the activities of the sect to foreign powers operating through Middle Eastern proxies in such a way that even the perpetrators do not realize who is driving the wheel.[14] Some analysts[15] are of the opinion that this was the characteristic manner in which Al-Qaeda was created in Afghanistan, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Palestine. It is also interesting to note that fifteen years after the Global Trends 2015 report, the Boko Haram insurgency has been linked with the narcotics trade and trafficking in women and children among other criminal activities projected in the report.
- A couple of years before 2015, major Western multinationals, especially in the oil and gas sector, began to divest from Nigeria as though in anticipation of an unconducive environment for business. It is noteworthy that a top ranking official of a multinational oil company[16] with a major stake in the Nigerian petroleum industry was named among the experts that produced the report titled Mapping the Global Future[17], the subsequent review of which led to the projection of the 2015 failed state scenario for Nigeria.
- Between 2006 and 2008, after the NIC projections, the United States established its United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) with the aim of protecting US interests across Africa. When Nigeria opposed the creation of AFRICOM and asked instead for US assistance in the creation of a Nigerian-owned and controlled military base in the various sub-regions of the continent, it was projected by intellectuals that relations between Nigeria and the US would turn sour and that, in its characteristic manner, the US would begin subtly interfering with Nigeria’s internal affairs in a bid to ultimately force Nigeria to comply.[18]
- A 5-day war game was simulated in Pennsylvania, USA in May 2008 as reported by the African Security Research Project.[19] Tests were conducted to determine how AFRICOM could respond to a possible crisis in Nigeria projected at 2013, in which “the Nigerian government is near collapse, and rival factions and rebels are fighting for control of the oil fields of the Niger Delta and vying for power” in the oil-rich country, which was at that time the sixth largest supplier of America’s oil imports. The report further indicates that at the end of the war game, the participants drew up a set of recommendations for then Army Chief of Staff, General George Casey, to present to President Bush, and that General Casey decided to brief the presidential candidates at the time, John McCain and Barack Obama, on the results of the exercise. It is instructive that one of the major catalysts fuelling political rivalries ahead of the 2015 elections is the existence of 92 oil wells in the Niger Delta, the allocation of which will be determined by whoever wins the elections.
- In April 2014, following the abduction of the Chibok girls and the ensuing international outcry, the Boko Haram crisis eventually opened the door for AFRICOM’s entry into Nigeria.
- In 2014, America completely cut off oil imports from Nigeria. Although it was presented as a policy aimed at stopping US-dependence on foreign oil and promoting clean energy, a December 2014 report by The Guardian[20] suggests that America’s imports from other traditional oil suppliers, including OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, actually increased when the US halted imports from Nigeria. This suggests that the policy on Nigeria could have been a targeted measure.
- The Nigeria-US relationship has remained sour in the lingering war against Boko Haram with Nigeria calling off the training arrangement it had with US soldiers. Furthermore, the US has refused to sell weapons to Nigeria citing human rights abuses by the Nigerian forces.[21] It is however noteworthy that the US has a history of support for undemocratic partners as was the case with Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan whom America supported with $300 million worth of military aid despite his implication in allegations of human rights abuse.[22]
These developments would make the observer wonder if the world is getting set for the downside scenario for Nigeria in 2015.
The second intrinsic factor that makes 2015 crucial for Nigeria is
the February 2015 elections which seem to further provide the incubator
for the hatching of the dreaded scenario. Speaking on the theme “The
Gathering Storm and Avoidable Shipwreck: How to Avoid Catastrophic
Euroclydon” in a state of the nation broadcast[23] at the Latter Rain
Assembly on Sunday the 4th of January this year, I alerted
the nation on seven signs that point to the looming storms ahead of the
forthcoming elections. The signs include:
- Poor Level of Election Preparedness
- Safety and Security Risks
- Likely Minority King-Making
- Looming Constitutional and Legal Crisis
- Impending Post-Election Tension
- Looming Economic Collapse
- Potential Religious Confusion, Betrayals, Scandals and Persecution
In reaction to the speech, the government and the electoral body have
attempted to clarify certain issues raised and have taken certain
measures aimed at boosting election preparations. However, the signs
still loom and the nation has thus far turned a deaf ear to my proposals
for a horse-before-the-cart approach. Instead, we are plunging
headstrong into the storms, carrying out a volatile transition process
without laying the necessary foundation for the sustenance of our
democracy. In what is turning out to be the democratic paradox, it
appears that we are acting out the script for the downside scenario and
setting ourselves up for the fulfilment of the 2015 failed state
projections. Do I hear you say God forbid? Hmmm! Hmmm!!
This address is, however, not about the elections. As far as those
are concerned, I have sufficiently warned the nation – let him who has
an ear hear what has been said. Instead, this speech is about the great
nation that will rise out of the rubble of the old one that is going
down; it is about the part of the unfolding Nigerian story which
international pundits are not privy to even though they realize the
existence of a part of the Nigerian puzzle that beats linear projections
and confounds prognosis. This address is about that wild card in the
equation, the ace in the puzzle. It is about the God-ordained destiny of
our nation and what we must do to get there. At this juncture, it is
necessary to find out what it is about Nigeria that has warranted such
attention from international pundits in the first place.
The Nigerian Potential
In its report titled Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future,[24] the NCI publication I earlier referred to, it was noted that“the ability of African countries to continue to muddle along despite high levels of violence should not be underestimated”. It was further observed that Nigeria had succeeded in maintaining its democratic façade despite the fact that 20,000 people had been killed in the country, according to the report. This capacity to defy expectations was admitted in the report when it noted that “if Angola, Nigeria, and Sudan—three of Africa’s largest and most important countries—actually began to use their revenues from oil in productive ways, these states would become stronger, tens of millions of Africans would benefit from reduced poverty, and the impact on the region might be significant”. The Global Trends 2015[25] report had earlier projected that “South Africa and Nigeria, the continent’s largest economies, will remain the dominant powers in the region through 2015” and that “the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the SADC [Southern African Development Community] will be the primary economic and political instruments through which the continental powers, Nigeria and South Africa, exert their leadership”. In April 2014, Moody’s, an international rating agency, projected that Nigeria will have one of the 15 largest economies in the world by 2050[26]. A similar projection had been made by Jim O’Neill, former Chairman of Goldman Sachs, as reported in the Business Day newspaper of March 21, 2014.[27] O’Neill had said that whereas the BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – would be the next phenomenon after the G7 economies, the MINT nations – Malaysia, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey – would emerge after them. Price Waterhouse Coopers (PWC), in its projections published in 2013[28], saw Nigeria as the 13th largest economy in the world by 2050. It regarded “Vietnam and Nigeria as potential fast-growing ‘wild cards’ outside of the G20”. In its growth projections, it had this to say about Nigeria:
In its report titled Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future,[24] the NCI publication I earlier referred to, it was noted that“the ability of African countries to continue to muddle along despite high levels of violence should not be underestimated”. It was further observed that Nigeria had succeeded in maintaining its democratic façade despite the fact that 20,000 people had been killed in the country, according to the report. This capacity to defy expectations was admitted in the report when it noted that “if Angola, Nigeria, and Sudan—three of Africa’s largest and most important countries—actually began to use their revenues from oil in productive ways, these states would become stronger, tens of millions of Africans would benefit from reduced poverty, and the impact on the region might be significant”. The Global Trends 2015[25] report had earlier projected that “South Africa and Nigeria, the continent’s largest economies, will remain the dominant powers in the region through 2015” and that “the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the SADC [Southern African Development Community] will be the primary economic and political instruments through which the continental powers, Nigeria and South Africa, exert their leadership”. In April 2014, Moody’s, an international rating agency, projected that Nigeria will have one of the 15 largest economies in the world by 2050[26]. A similar projection had been made by Jim O’Neill, former Chairman of Goldman Sachs, as reported in the Business Day newspaper of March 21, 2014.[27] O’Neill had said that whereas the BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – would be the next phenomenon after the G7 economies, the MINT nations – Malaysia, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey – would emerge after them. Price Waterhouse Coopers (PWC), in its projections published in 2013[28], saw Nigeria as the 13th largest economy in the world by 2050. It regarded “Vietnam and Nigeria as potential fast-growing ‘wild cards’ outside of the G20”. In its growth projections, it had this to say about Nigeria:
“Nigeria could be the fastest growing country in our sample due to
its youthful and growing working population, but this does rely on using
its oil wealth to develop a broader based economy with better
infrastructure and institutions (e.g. as regards rule of law and
political governance) and hence support long term productivity growth –
the potential is there, but it remains to be realised in practice”.
Furthermore, using the National Power Index, the Atlantic Council and
International Futures have predicted that Nigeria will be the 19th most powerful country in the world by 2020, the 18th by 2030, 16th by 2040 and 14th
by 2050.[29] Also noteworthy is an October 2013 study by the French
Institute of Demographic Studies which predicted that by 2050, Nigeria
will overtake the United States as the third most populous country in
the world with a population of 444 million, behind China and India.[30]
Although we do not have to base our confidence as a nation on these
international projections, it is worth pointing out that even among
international pundits, our potential for greatness has been widely
acknowledged.
Some Factors behind the Nigerian Potential
Population/Demographics: Not only is Nigeria the most populous country in Africa, it has a very youthful population. Whereas only 16% of the population in Europe and 25% of the Asian population are below 15 years, 41% of Africa’s population is below 15 years.[31] The population of Nigerians below 15 was 44% in 2010[32] while over 60% of Nigerians are below 35 years.[33] This implies that Nigeria has a large potential workforce compared to some of the world’s developed countries. I must add that this potential workforce includes you, students of this great university.
Population/Demographics: Not only is Nigeria the most populous country in Africa, it has a very youthful population. Whereas only 16% of the population in Europe and 25% of the Asian population are below 15 years, 41% of Africa’s population is below 15 years.[31] The population of Nigerians below 15 was 44% in 2010[32] while over 60% of Nigerians are below 35 years.[33] This implies that Nigeria has a large potential workforce compared to some of the world’s developed countries. I must add that this potential workforce includes you, students of this great university.
Natural Resources: Apart from her oil
reserves and natural gas reserves, Nigeria is endowed with 34 solid
minerals[34] and each state of the federation is endowed with one or
more minerals with significant trade and industrial potential.
Investment Attraction: In 2014, a United
States-based economic advisory firm, Frontiers Strategy Group,
identified Nigeria as the preferred investment destination among other
African countries despite the security situation.[35] This phenomenon,
which is not unconnected to the nation’s vast endowments, implies a
great potential for capital inflow.
The Nigerian Spirit: Although there is
currently no index to lend empirical credence to what may be referred to
as the Nigerian spirit, this inexplicable factor makes the Nigerian
unique and contributes to the Nigerian potential. It is seen in the
enthusiasm, drive and optimism of the Nigerian. It can be observed on
the streets of Lagos in the sonorous voice of the conductor calling out
to potential passengers, in the aggressiveness and tact of street
traders and street beggars as they sell their products and predicaments
to commuters, in the doggedness of the worker racing and rushing to
catch a bus early in the morning. It is resident in every Nigerian, even
in a villager who visits the city for the first time and is initially
taken aback by the rush but eventually adjusts and becomes streetwise in
no time. It is a latent entrepreneurial spirit waiting to be harnessed.
The Nigerian Paradox
Despite these endowments, our nation has paradoxically performed sub-optimally. This sub-optimal state of the nation is reflected in the experience of the disillusioned average Nigerian youth whose story we shall begin to tell from his struggles through secondary school. We shall call him Johnny. The substandard state of his learning environment is seen in the broken chairs, tables and leaky roof with which his classroom is furnished. Ventilation has been taken care of by the fact that the windows are always open. In fact, there are no windows, just spaces on the walls where windows ought to be fixed; spaces that have been further widened by cracks on the walls. Indeed, the classroom has no need of windows as it is occupied by three arms, each supplying no fewer than 60 students. So, altogether, there are about 180 of them in one classroom. Johnny and his classmates dare not complain. After all, their lot is better than that of students in a neighbouring school where students sit on mats and where some classes are held under a mango tree. His maths teacher, overburdened with a merciless workload for which he was last paid six months ago, has become the meanest man on earth, the very definition of frustration. Like his other classmates, even when Johnny does not understand his maths lessons, he dares not ask questions for fear of the teacher’s hostile response. A hungry man, they say, is an angry man. With parents who can barely feed the family, Johnny manages to get through secondary school, hawking after school to support his struggling parents. He eventually writes the WASSCE and passes all his subjects except mathematics. By hook or crook, he obtains a credit in maths from NECO and turns his attention to the UTME. He attends tutorial centres in preparation for the matriculation exam. He intends to study medicine. While preparing for the UTME, he takes on menial jobs to support himself and his parents. Unfortunately, he is unable to prepare sufficiently for the exams and scores below the cut-off point. He tries again the next year and still does not meet the cut-off point. He writes it a third time and decides to settle for Zoology. He is admitted to one of Nigeria’s universities (name withheld). He attends lectures in a dilapidated lecture hall that was last renovated when his grandfather was a young janitor in the university, he dissects toads in a poorly equipped laboratory that has become a biological museum, and he sleeps in an overcrowded hostel with twelve occupants in a room that was once for two. To worsen matters, in his final year, two of his results cannot be found. Fearing a carry-over and delayed graduation, he joins a fellowship and takes it to the Lord in prayer. His prayers are answered and his results are found. He graduates after seven years on a four-year course. Mind you, he spent three additional years not because he failed but because ASUU was on strike for a cumulative period of a year and a half, while the school was closed over student unrest for another cumulative period of a year and a half.
Despite these endowments, our nation has paradoxically performed sub-optimally. This sub-optimal state of the nation is reflected in the experience of the disillusioned average Nigerian youth whose story we shall begin to tell from his struggles through secondary school. We shall call him Johnny. The substandard state of his learning environment is seen in the broken chairs, tables and leaky roof with which his classroom is furnished. Ventilation has been taken care of by the fact that the windows are always open. In fact, there are no windows, just spaces on the walls where windows ought to be fixed; spaces that have been further widened by cracks on the walls. Indeed, the classroom has no need of windows as it is occupied by three arms, each supplying no fewer than 60 students. So, altogether, there are about 180 of them in one classroom. Johnny and his classmates dare not complain. After all, their lot is better than that of students in a neighbouring school where students sit on mats and where some classes are held under a mango tree. His maths teacher, overburdened with a merciless workload for which he was last paid six months ago, has become the meanest man on earth, the very definition of frustration. Like his other classmates, even when Johnny does not understand his maths lessons, he dares not ask questions for fear of the teacher’s hostile response. A hungry man, they say, is an angry man. With parents who can barely feed the family, Johnny manages to get through secondary school, hawking after school to support his struggling parents. He eventually writes the WASSCE and passes all his subjects except mathematics. By hook or crook, he obtains a credit in maths from NECO and turns his attention to the UTME. He attends tutorial centres in preparation for the matriculation exam. He intends to study medicine. While preparing for the UTME, he takes on menial jobs to support himself and his parents. Unfortunately, he is unable to prepare sufficiently for the exams and scores below the cut-off point. He tries again the next year and still does not meet the cut-off point. He writes it a third time and decides to settle for Zoology. He is admitted to one of Nigeria’s universities (name withheld). He attends lectures in a dilapidated lecture hall that was last renovated when his grandfather was a young janitor in the university, he dissects toads in a poorly equipped laboratory that has become a biological museum, and he sleeps in an overcrowded hostel with twelve occupants in a room that was once for two. To worsen matters, in his final year, two of his results cannot be found. Fearing a carry-over and delayed graduation, he joins a fellowship and takes it to the Lord in prayer. His prayers are answered and his results are found. He graduates after seven years on a four-year course. Mind you, he spent three additional years not because he failed but because ASUU was on strike for a cumulative period of a year and a half, while the school was closed over student unrest for another cumulative period of a year and a half.
Upon graduation, he is posted to a remote village for an experience
that assures him of one fact: “Now Your Suffering Continues (NYSC)”. He
gladly accepts it for two reasons – first, he was not posted to the
North where he cannot be certain of returning to his poor parents alive;
second, his NYSC allowance will sustain him for the period of service.
He can also send a few naira notes back home to his parents. Alas, the
one year service comes to an end and he has to look for a job. For two
years, he drops his CV at the reception of every available firm and
writes aptitude tests in every sector that has an opening, from banking
and finance to telecoms, from media to oil and gas, from civil service
to non-profit, and from the police force to the immigration service
whose aptitude tests are conducted in football stadiums. When these
don’t work out, he tries out a career in comedy but quits when MC jobs
are not forthcoming as no one wants to hire a Johnny Just Come (JJC). At
that point he gives up, resigns himself to fate, makes watching
football his past time, becomes an expert at football analysis, and even
tries out gambling in the name of sports betting. His psychological
distance from his country is seen in the fact that he knows all the
players in Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United, when they were
bought, how much they are paid, how long their contracts will last and
how many goals they have scored but knows nothing about a single player
in Enyimba or any Nigerian club for that matter.
Then one day, unexpectedly, one of the banks that interviewed him a
year earlier suddenly needs cashiers and gives him a call. He excitedly
takes the job. One year into the job, however, while he is trying to
consider career development prospects and has started thinking of
proposing to his girlfriend, financial crisis hits the banking sector
and his bank downsizes. Guess who is among the first to be laid off!
Johnny!
We may laugh at Johnny’s experience but it is not funny. It is not
funny to that young graduate on the streets of Lagos, Ife, Ibadan,
Benin, Port Harcourt or Kano, with a knotted tie under the heat of the
sun, file in hand and sweat in brow, knocking on gates from one firm to
another in search of an opening; it is not funny to that family whose
child sits at home jobless years after graduating despite the time,
energy and resources spent on educating him or her; it is not funny to a
nation when only 29% of its school leavers gain admission into the
available tertiary institutions[36], which implies that 71% are shut out
of the system each year; it is not funny to a nation when 50% or about
64 million of its youth population is unemployed.[37]
In the Global Talent Index – an index of how countries attract,
develop and retain talent as well as how this translates to
competitiveness – Nigeria has remained at the bottom of the table in
spite of her rapid population growth[38]. Conversely, South Africa, the
other African country studied in the survey, is higher up on the table
as a result of that country’s relatively high spending on education as a
proportion of GDP. This trend is also seen in the Global Innovation
Index which rates countries in terms of their success at creating
enabling environments for innovation and innovation outputs. In this
ranking, Nigeria is 110th out of 143 countries studied[39].
In the Human Development Index, which is a composite statistic of life
expectancy, education and income indices, Nigeria occupies the 152nd position out of 187 countries.[40] This should not come as a surprise as Nigeria’s scorecard in the education index is 145th
out of 181 countries[41]. It is obvious that Nigeria has paid little
attention to the most vital resource in any nation – the human resource.
This accounts for the paradoxical sub-optimal state of the nation in
spite of her material resource endowment.
The Underlying Causes of the Paradox
It was John F. Kennedy who said, “Our progress as a nation can be no swifter than our progress in education. The human mind is our fundamental resource”. Every nation that must convert its material resource endowment to real wealth must prioritize human resource development. It was in consonance with this principle that Aristotle once said, “All who have meditated on the art of governing mankind have been convinced that the fate of empires depends on the education of youth”. It takes genuine transformational leadership to recognize this principle and, consequently, to develop and deploy the right human resource for national development. Such transformational leadership was what Chief Obafemi Awolowo demonstrated in the Western Region. This university is one of the fruits of that exceptional leadership. That kind of leadership was what Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe demonstrated in the Eastern Region. The University of Nigeria Nsukka is one of the fruits of that dogged leadership. That kind of leadership was what Sir Ahmadu Bello demonstrated in the Northern Region. Ahmadu Bello University is one of the fruits of that astute leadership. Lest some opportunists begin to equate the mere establishment of universities with transformational leadership, let me point out that these universities were strategic components of broader regional development plans designed and articulated for each region under the leadership of the respective regional governments. The absence of that kind of transformational leadership is the immediate cause of our developmental paradox as a nation.
It was John F. Kennedy who said, “Our progress as a nation can be no swifter than our progress in education. The human mind is our fundamental resource”. Every nation that must convert its material resource endowment to real wealth must prioritize human resource development. It was in consonance with this principle that Aristotle once said, “All who have meditated on the art of governing mankind have been convinced that the fate of empires depends on the education of youth”. It takes genuine transformational leadership to recognize this principle and, consequently, to develop and deploy the right human resource for national development. Such transformational leadership was what Chief Obafemi Awolowo demonstrated in the Western Region. This university is one of the fruits of that exceptional leadership. That kind of leadership was what Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe demonstrated in the Eastern Region. The University of Nigeria Nsukka is one of the fruits of that dogged leadership. That kind of leadership was what Sir Ahmadu Bello demonstrated in the Northern Region. Ahmadu Bello University is one of the fruits of that astute leadership. Lest some opportunists begin to equate the mere establishment of universities with transformational leadership, let me point out that these universities were strategic components of broader regional development plans designed and articulated for each region under the leadership of the respective regional governments. The absence of that kind of transformational leadership is the immediate cause of our developmental paradox as a nation.
The lack of transformational leadership is the result of fundamental
divisions in our polity. A nation that is this divided along ethnic and
religious lines is bound to make erroneous political decisions. A
situation where the Yoruba man will not vote for an Igbo man and the
Igbo man thinks he has nothing to gain from the government of a
Hausa/Fulani man is a recipe for clueless leadership because in the end
our bigotry will exclude the best of us and ensure that the rest of us
are governed by the worst of us. In essence, our developmental
challenges have a deeper root cause in our failure to integrate and
become one true nation of diverse peoples. This takes us to another
aspect of the challenge.
A nation of diverse entities and group agitations such as ours must
be geopolitically structured to effectively balance the need for
sub-group identity with the pull towards national integration. Genuine
federalism is the ideal structural framework for such. It is instructive
that our founding fathers were able to exhibit transformational
leadership in a truly federal geopolitical context. This university
would not be in existence today if the Western Region had no powers to
set it up in defiance of a federal proposition. When the decision to set
it up was eventually made, the regional government funded it from the
region’s cocoa economy. Imagine what would have happened if the Western
Region had to wait for allocations from Ikoyi, the seat of the federal
government at that time, before embarking on such developmental
projects. If that had been the case, there would be no Obafemi Awolowo
University today. Moreover, aside its intended contribution to the
national workforce, the university was set up with the aim of providing
for the region the needed manpower to run its peculiar economy. If that
economy had been sustained over the years and had not overrun by the
unification decree and eventually replaced by the current mono-economic
structure, no competent graduate of this university would leave school
without the assurance of a job or an opportunity to build a thriving
business. Given the competitive quest for development that characterized
the regions at the time, and given the visionary drive of the
respective regional leaders, the same would have applied to graduates of
tertiary institutions across the country including the Northern region
which was at first comparatively disadvantaged.
However, the eventual collapse of that era began when the federal
government began to tamper with the federal structure by its
unscrupulous interference in the politics of the Western Region in the
early 60s. The federal structure was eventually destroyed with the
unification decree of General Aguiyi-Ironsi on May 24, 1966.
Since the destruction of Nigeria’s federal structure, no leader, no
matter how charismatic, has been as transformational in impact as our
founding fathers. Potentially transformational leaders in our post-civil
war democratic experience under a pseudo-federal structure have been
met with sectional resistance either at the election stage as was the
case with Chief Obafemi Awolowo in 1979 and 1983 or at the post-election
stage as was the case with Chief M.K.O. Abiola in 1993. Under the 1999
constitutional and structural arrangement, the electoral experience of
General Muhammadu Buhari since 2003 has been another classic case of
sectional rejection of transformational leadership. We sincerely hope
the formation of APC will conclusively change that trend this time
around.
This chain of limitations to the Nigerian potential has been further
sustained by the non-awareness of the Nigerian people of the power they
have at their disposal and of how to channel that power towards
sustainable national transformation. Worse still, the enlightened
component of the population comprised of the elite and the
intelligentsia is often indifferent or given to compromise and playing
to the gallery.
Beyond 2015: Portrait of a Properly Structured and Well-Governed Nigeria
I wish I could begin to paint the portrait of Nigeria beyond 2015 by simply articulating a magnificent developmental blueprint. We will get to that juncture shortly but it is imperative to first reiterate that, given our current trajectory in 2015, we are heading for the nightmare scenario, a pathway that will necessitate a period of reconstruction.
I wish I could begin to paint the portrait of Nigeria beyond 2015 by simply articulating a magnificent developmental blueprint. We will get to that juncture shortly but it is imperative to first reiterate that, given our current trajectory in 2015, we are heading for the nightmare scenario, a pathway that will necessitate a period of reconstruction.
As Simon Kolawole wrote on the back page of the THISDAY newspaper of Sunday 25, 2015, under the heading “Buhari and the Burden of Expectations”:
Unfortunately, the reality is that Nigeria will not change overnight.
I’m no longer a reckless optimist. There are no shortcuts to solving
some of our deep-seated problems. The road ahead is very rough,
particularly as crude oil — the livewire of our economy — continues to
tumble, pricewise. Truth be told: no matter who wins the presidential
election — whether it is Jonathan or Buhari — there are tough decisions
ahead. Tough decisions about the oil industry. Tough decisions about
electricity tariffs. Tough decisions about military action against Boko
Haram, which may come with collateral damage. Tough decisions about
downsizing the civil service. Don’t let us deceive ourselves.
Buhari is more realistic than most of his supporters. In an interview
with TheCable last year, he said: “Nigerians have to be prepared to
suffer for at least five straight years before we can stabilise this
country, security wise and economically.” In other words, there are no
fertilisers to accelerate the development of Nigeria. I do not blame
Nigerians for being impatient. The only thing a hungry man wants to hear
is “food is ready”, not “food will be ready”. But a more realistic
expectation is that no matter who is president, we need policy
consistency, commitment and funding for at least 10 solid years before
we can be anywhere near South Korea or Singapore. Rome was not built in a
day. No one man will change or transform Nigeria overnight. Tough
truth. [42]
Contrary to prognostications, however, it will be a blessing in
disguise as it will afford us the opportunity to rebuild the
foundations. It will be a rare opportunity to rebuild the old ruins of
our geopolitical structure, to raise collapsed institutions, and to
implement a robust developmental blueprint, the output of which will
shock the doomsday 2015 prognosticators and transcend the 2050
projections. The portrait of Nigeria beyond 2015 will have the following
landmark features:
- Reconciliation: The divisions in our polity over the years have beensustained by historical grievances. The failure of the Nigerian state to address these grievances has produced resentment, nurtured bitterness and engendered distrust amongst Nigerians against one another and against the state. It is obvious to the discerning that the planned February 2015 general elections, the presidential election in particular, however it turns out, are set to aggravate those grievances. The path to reconstruction will therefore necessitate a genuine reconciliation programme, the blueprint of which has been created but the modalities of which are beyond the scope of this presentation.
- Accurate Demographics: The reconciled peoples must have an accurate assessment of national and subnational population, not as a prerequisite for the receipt of federal allocation, but for implementable developmental planning. It will also aid proper constituency delineation and the creation of a standard voters’ register.
- Restructuring: To keep reconciled peoples together, a governmental framework that preserves the right of subnational entities to internal self-determination must be put in place. As I stated earlier, this calls for the adoption of a truly federal structure in the geopolitical and fiscal sense of the concept in such a manner that effectively jumpstarts the development of all the federating units. Some of the features of a suitable structure are as follows:
i. The devolution of governmental powers and
responsibilities in such a manner that governance is brought much closer
to the people;
ii. A strong centre integrating strong and viable federating units;
iii. The empowerment of the federating units such that public goods can be efficiently delivered to end users;
iv. Local governments that are democratically administered and financially autonomous albeit as channels through which the federating units fulfill the promise of people-oriented governance;
v. Appropriately sized and efficient governments;
vi. A legislature that is small enough to minimize the cost of governance yet representative enough to cater to both large and small sub-national groups on the basis of equality and proportionality;
vii. An executive government that is separate enough from the legislature to guarantee separation of powers yet close enough to the legislature to guarantee accountability as well as checks and balances;
viii. The institution of compulsory channels of accountability;
ix. Equity in resource management as well as income generation and allocation; and
x. Recognition and optimization of regional or zonal distinguishing factors towards development and for the purpose of efficient political, economic and social interactions.
ii. A strong centre integrating strong and viable federating units;
iii. The empowerment of the federating units such that public goods can be efficiently delivered to end users;
iv. Local governments that are democratically administered and financially autonomous albeit as channels through which the federating units fulfill the promise of people-oriented governance;
v. Appropriately sized and efficient governments;
vi. A legislature that is small enough to minimize the cost of governance yet representative enough to cater to both large and small sub-national groups on the basis of equality and proportionality;
vii. An executive government that is separate enough from the legislature to guarantee separation of powers yet close enough to the legislature to guarantee accountability as well as checks and balances;
viii. The institution of compulsory channels of accountability;
ix. Equity in resource management as well as income generation and allocation; and
x. Recognition and optimization of regional or zonal distinguishing factors towards development and for the purpose of efficient political, economic and social interactions.
- Constitutionalism: The reconstruction process must then bequeath to the nation a true people’s constitution that will codify the aforementioned features and lay genuine claim to the phrase, “We the people”.
- Institution Building: Within constitutional parameters, the first institution to be rebuilt would be the electoral body with a view to producing an unbiased and truly independent electoral umpire whose head will be appointed not by the president but through such mechanisms of checks and balance as were recommended in relevant documents such as the report of the National Electoral Reform Committee (NERC) and revisited in the 2014 National Conference. The funding of such a truly independent body will be drawn from first line charge on the federation account. This would then set the stage for the rebuilding and strengthening, as the case may be, of institutions of democratic governance across the different levels and arms of government.
- Integration: Upon the foundation of genuine reconciliation, restructuring and constitutionalism, active steps must be taken to blur the fault lines that have divided us for so long and to weld the diverse peoples of this nation together so that one people will be formed out of many, and patriotic devotion to the national cause will transcend regional and ethnic loyalties and dissipate religious biases.
- Social Reforms:The path to recovery will be characterized by transformation in the education sector across the various levels in terms of improved access to quality education, innovative education management, world class teacher training and development as well as teacher evaluation and remuneration. Systems will be designed to constantly reform and update teaching and learning methods, curriculum and access to cutting-edge technology, thereby astronomically improving learning outcomes. Moreover, the system will ensure the linkage of the education sector with the broader socioeconomic framework as part of a new national economic order as I will describe shortly. Reforms in the social landscape of our nation will also impact the health sector, empower women and youth, and enhance social security with a view to achieving social justice.
- A New National Economic Order:The reconstruction process will eventually bequeath to the nation a thriving economy bustling with opportunities and ideas and will also provide an enabling environment for innovation in every sector of the economy. One of the first fruits of this new economic order will be the emergence of Regional Economic Zones. In this regard, Nigeria will experience the rise of megacities across the six geopolitical zones such that there will be six unique models of the Dubai experience. As I hinted earlier, a unique feature of these zones will be the productive triangular relationship between the ivory tower, industry and government. Public policy will harness academic institutions for the discovery, development and deployment of talents, ideas, knowledge and entrepreneurs into industries in the sectors in which each zone has comparative advantage in terms of human and material resources as well as market potential.
For instance, business clusters will be created to harness the
revolutionary DNA of an institution such as the Obafemi Awolowo
University for marketplace innovation. This will be done by government
and the private sector jointly funding targeted research projects in the
university while creating a Silicon Valley-type city around the
university to cater to industries such as Information and Communication
Technology (ICT), Agriculture and Biotechnology, Healthcare and
Pharmaceuticals, Building, Automobile, and Cosmetics, as well as service
industries such as Finance, Legal, Hospitality, and Entertainment. Such
industrial cities will be powered through Independent Power Projects
with the potential to also provide uninterrupted power supply to
surrounding towns thereby adding the power sector to the industrial mix.
In this triangular relationship, education will be rightly structured
as a human resource development system within a viable macroeconomic
policy framework. Hence, educational experience will include sufficient
industrial exposure. A higher education degree will require not just
credits and dissertations but feasible intrapreneurial or
entrepreneurial ideas as well as career or business plans as the case
may be. The result will be an explosion in invention and innovation
which will translate to start-ups in some cases and will be integrated
into existing businesses through highly profitable business models in
others. This will reduce unemployment to the barest minimum and cause
the national economy to blossom. If Johnny, our zoology graduate and job
seeker from an unnamed university had gone through that system, at the
point of graduation, he would have had career options in an array of
industries including agriculture, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals and
would have been adequately capacitated for the entrepreneurial option.
Such unique models will be replicated around various institutions
across the federation. Indeed, such enterprise models will be distilled
to the community level in such a way that the information revolution,
the industrial revolution and the agricultural revolution will be rolled
into one revolutionary economic experience for our nation. In effect,
we will not only catch up in the race to development as though receiving
multiple compensations for our past troubles, we will blaze the trail
by creating new vistas of economic and technological advancement. The
details of these economic models are not for this occasion but I have
introduced to you what is possible with your own university in order to
challenge you to rise up and demand a nation that works.
- A New International Economic Order: Nigeria’s optimal economic performance will produce ripple effects in the West African sub-region, in Sub-Saharan Africa, and in Africa as a whole. African countries will begin to experience the transition from poverty and underdevelopment to prosperity and sustainable development to the amazement of the world. As a result, Africa will be able to negotiate with the rest of the world from a position of strength as equal partners in mutually beneficial economic and political relationships, no longer as slaves, no longer as objects, and no longer as pawns. In this regard, Nigeria will readily provide the needed sub-regional and continental leadership.
- Leadership: At every stage of the reconstruction process, there will be the need for leadership. Leadership will be needed to steer the ship of state when the storms hit the nation to ensure that we do not end up in the downside scenario projected by the National Intelligence Council of the United States. Throughout the reconstruction process, leadership will be required at various stages and at various levels until we build the Nigeria of our dreams. These leaders will be God-fearing men and women, people of character and courage. They will be uncompromising non-conformists and a radical opposition to corruption. I believe that such leadership materials are among you and that the nation will be calling upon you in due time to contribute your quota as she embarks on her voyage of destiny.
What Students Must Do at This Period in Our Nation’s History
I presume that the question on your minds at this juncture is, “What shall we do at this critical point in the history of our nation to ensure that we get to the Promised Land?” My answer is the same admonition I gave to students on the 17th of November last year, on the occasion of the International Students’ Day, courtesy of Ogun State government:
I presume that the question on your minds at this juncture is, “What shall we do at this critical point in the history of our nation to ensure that we get to the Promised Land?” My answer is the same admonition I gave to students on the 17th of November last year, on the occasion of the International Students’ Day, courtesy of Ogun State government:
As individuals and as bodies of students, you must, first of all,
self-reflect, self-evaluate, self-reconstruct, self-develop and
self-organize. Individual students must take responsibility for their
lives and take personal development seriously for one cannot contribute
meaningfully to societal development without adequate personal
development. It was Winston Churchill who once said, “The price of
greatness is responsibility”. To this end, you must pursue excellence
in learning. You must incline your minds to wisdom, knowledge and
understanding for these are the keys to unblocking the mind and
unlocking potential. Then, you must rid yourselves of cultism and other
self-destructive tendencies and take back student unionism from hoodlums
and charlatans… [43]
After undergoing such rebirth, the student unions must become a
shining light to the dark polity, separating themselves from the
corruption and decay in the polity. They must then align themselves with
nation-builders, not self-seeking politicians. They must become
crusaders for the restructuring and rebirth of the Nigerian nation,
organizing themselves into a movement for national reconciliation and
integration and placing a demand on Government to implement
recommendations that will rescue this nation from the looming danger,
including recommendations from the just concluded 2014 National
Conference in which I participated actively as a South-West delegate, in
which students were represented, and in which all the delegates,
including the students, signed a Charter for National Reconciliation and
Integration. By that charter, when implemented, a new era of nationhood
will dawn on Nigeria; by that charter, we will cease to be peoples
coerced to coexist, instead we will become a people who willingly come
together to forge a more perfect union; by that charter, our nationhood
shall no longer be the result of colonial amalgamation or military
proclamation, instead it shall become the result of a people’s
declaration; by that charter, we have the opportunity to evolve a social
contract that spells out the principles under which we shall coexist,
outlines our responsibilities as citizens, and highlights the
irreducible minimum conditions under which we shall be governed and
beneath which we shall refuse to be subjected. It is a declaration of
the Nigerian Dream that every Nigerian must become abreast of and whose
implementation every Nigerian must rise to demand. Therefore, Nigerian
students must understand the essence of that charter and become the
spearheads of the promotion of its spirit and letter as a necessary step
to national rebirth using every available medium at their disposal.
Then, students must actively mobilize for free, fair and credible
elections when the structural and systemic framework for such has been
created.
In relation to the international political and economic order within
which our nation currently exists and which invariably shape your
immediate social, economic and political environment, I challenge you to
become more aware and more responsible. I charge you not to reduce
yourselves to mere spectators in the global equation, tossed about
aimlessly by the winds of globalization. I charge you to expose your
minds to the right information and to ask questions. As intellectuals,
conduct research, engage local and international communities using
social media and other legal avenues available to you. If you become
certain that your government is failing to protect the interest of your
nation in the unfolding international order, you have a right to place a
demand on that government. If I may inform you, certain reforms that
you see today in the international social, political and economic order
were made possible because of the events of 1968, a turning-point year
in which students around the world, from Paris to the United States,
from Germany to Prague, from Italy to the United Kingdom and from Poland
to Japan, amongst other countries, began to challenge the injustices of
that era, placing demands on their respective governments.
Nigeria, too, has had her experience of students taking
responsibility. In 1961, when Britain sought to sustain the culture of
dependency in her relationship with Nigeria through the Anglo-Nigerian
Defence Pact, the students of the University of Ibadan marched to the
parliament in Lagos and put an end to it. Years later, in 1989, when the
Washington Consensus, comprised of the United States Treasury
Department and the Bretton Woods institutions, sold to Nigeria the idea
of structural adjustment based on tight conditions that included
austerity measures characterized by reduced government spending on
critical social sectors such as education and health, the Nigerian
students once again took to the streets to protest this sell-out of the
Nigerian state by the military administration of General Babangida. I
therefore challenge you to restore student unionism to its glory days. I
charge you to bring back the days of the Segun Okeowos, the days of the
Segun Maiyeguns, the days of the Yinka Odumakins, the days of the Joe
Okei-Odumakins, patriots who bore the touch of truth in their time as
students.
As you take responsibility for the future of your nation, be guided
by an age-long principle which has guided my involvement in activism
right from my days in the University of Lagos and has remained with me
even as we seek to salvage Nigeria on the platform of Save Nigeria Group
(SNG). That principle, in summary is tagged: “no revenge, no reprisals,
no rage, no resentment, and no violence”.
It was disheartening to learn that students of this university turned
violently against one another on account of the recent visit of
President Goodluck Jonathan to this campus. Whatever your political
persuasions, you must desist from political violence. Do not waste your
youth on account of politicians no matter what political party or
interest they represent.
In conclusion, looking beyond 2015, keep your eyes on the great
destiny that is ahead of our nation and determine not to look back
having put your hands on the plough until you have served your
generation with the integrity of your heart and with the skillfulness of
your hands, marching on confidently with this assurance: no matter the
storms that lie ahead, Nigeria will be saved, Nigeria will be changed
and Nigeria will become great.
Thank you. God bless you, and God bless our country, Nigeria.
Pastor ‘Tunde Bakare,
Serving Overseer,
The Latter Rain Assembly,
Lagos, Nigeria
&
The Convener,
Save Nigeria Group (SNG).
Serving Overseer,
The Latter Rain Assembly,
Lagos, Nigeria
&
The Convener,
Save Nigeria Group (SNG).
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[24] See 5
[25] See 2
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